Overpricing helps your neighbor more than it helps you

PREVIEW: AI money in SF, real numbers in Boulder, and why overpricing helps your neighbor more than it helps you.

Most of the housing headlines right now make it sound like the whole market is either crashing or exploding. In reality, 2026 is a split market and if you own a $1-2M home in Boulder, the difference between those two worlds shows up in your first 30 days on market.

The Big Picture: The Free Pass Is Gone

The “pandemic free pass” on pricing has expired. In 2021, you could throw a wild number at the wall, hope for multiple offers, and sometimes get rewarded anyway.

In 2026, that same strategy does the opposite: your listing sits, goes stale, and you end up selling for less than you would have if you’d priced it right from day one.

Boulder’s May numbers tell the story:

Median days in MLS: 22 – roughly three weeks to find your buyer.

Median showings to pending: 9.5 – about ten sets of eyes before you’re under contract.

Median percent of closed to list: 98.9% – the typical seller is giving up about 1% off list to get the deal done.

That’s what a balanced market looks like: buyers have room to negotiate, and sellers no longer get rewarded for fantasy pricing.

The Wealth Shock: AI/IPO Money in San Francisco

At the same time, something very different is happening in San Francisco.

Big AI and tech firms – Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, and others are minting liquidity for people who already had major equity.

As those companies go public or move toward IPOs, employees and early investors are:

Writing cash offers on prime single family homes

Borrowing against their stock to buy now

Paying real premiums for the “right” properties inside the city

The result: some SF neighborhoods are hitting new price highs even while the broader market talks about fatigue and buyers pushing back.

A small pool of buyers with big balance sheets is willing to go “YOLO” on a very short list of homes. Everyone else is grinding on price.

You don’t have to like that dynamic. But it’s useful, because it shows how a little concentrated money can move a local market without changing (or even really being relevant to) the national story.

Boulder: Your Market Is Two Markets

Now look back at Boulder through that lens.

On paper, we look calm:

~3 weeks on market

~10 showings to get a deal done

~99% of list price at closing

That’s the average. But you’re not selling the average.

Here’s what’s really happening in the $1-2M band:

The “right” homes, clean, updated, well located, and priced with today’s buyers in mind are still getting strong activity in the first two weeks and locking up the best offers.

The “2021 priced” homes, the ones chasing a neighbor’s peak COVID number or an SF AI headline are drifting through 30, 60, 90 days, then cutting, then closing below where a smart initial list would have landed.

A small group of well capitalized buyers (tech workers, founders, stock heavy professionals) will stretch for one house that hits their list perfectly.

On everything else, they’re using the data to negotiate hard.

So yes, you might hear a crazy success story from the Bay Area or from one Boulder unicorn sale. But our actual numbers say something more nuanced: this is a market that rewards realistic pricing and quietly punishes wishful thinking.

“Cheap” Pricing vs. Smart Pricing

Let me clear up one thing I hear a lot, usually said half joking, half accusing:

“Mike just wants to price it cheap so he doesn’t have to work hard.”

No. Pricing it too rich is what makes you work harder and then net less.

My job is to price you on the bid side of the market; where real, qualified buyers are actually willing to write checks right now and not in the fantasy zone where you sit around collecting online views and no offers.

Here’s what happens when we “test high” just to see:

You become the decoy.

Buyers look at your overpriced home, say “nice, but not at that number,” and then go write on the better priced listing down the street. Your listing becomes the reason your neighbor sells, not you.

You burn your best window.

The most serious, motivated buyers see you in the first 2-3 weeks. If they think you’re overpriced, they don’t come back later just because you finally join reality. They’ve already moved on.

You lose leverage over time.

The longer you sit, the more the question becomes, “What’s wrong with that house?” Every price cut signals weakness. By the time you have to sell, you’re negotiating from the back foot.

You often net less than a smart, near the bid price.

Not because the home is bad, but because the strategy told buyers you were unrealistic which turns to a percieved desperation, even when you aren’t.

So no, I’m not trying to “price it cheap so I don’t have to work hard.” I’m trying to keep you out of the trap where you chase a number the market was never going to pay and end up selling too cheap because you started too high.

Why Your First 30 Days Matter

Your first month on market is when the market decides whether you’re:

“The one” they write on, or

“The one they use to justify an offer on something else.”

If we price where the buyers actually are, your path looks a lot like the current median: about 22 days, 9-10 showings, and a final number very close to list.

If we price like it’s still 2021 or like Boulder is suddenly full of AI millionaires, you don’t just “try high and see.”

You volunteer to be the decoy that helps your neighbor get their offer.

The danger in 2026 isn’t selling too low. It’s sitting too long on the wrong number.

Peace