Fewer than 1 in 3 Boulder listings sold in September

Here’s what happened in Boulder County last month, in September.

About 2,100 homes were on the market. About 640 closed or went under contract.

To sell, your home had to be in the top third of what was for sale.

The other two thirds sat, cut price, or quit. 240 of them expired.

Those sellers aren’t done. Most will pull the home, wait out the winter, and relist in April and May, right when everyone else does.

Here’s what that does to spring inventory. Honestly, it’s staggering the seasonality in Boco and the City.

(I’m sorry I know the numbers are dense. But they’re important if you care about what’s happening in real estate around here. If you don’t like looking at them, copy and paste these bolded sections and pop them in your fave LLM).

. Single family homes for sale in Boulder County, winter low to summer peak:

· 2024: December 464 → July 925 (up 99%)
· 2025: December 565 → July 1,127 (up 99%)
· 2026: December 594 → July 968 (up 63%)

Every spring, competition jumps 63% to double. Next spring adds this year’s expireds on top, all coming back at once with price cuts.

In the city of Boulder, it’s even more stark:

· 2024: December 156 → July 363 (up 133%)
· 2025: December 176 → July 408 (up 132%)
· 2026: December 218 → July 373 (up 71%)

Now flip it. Summer to winter, Boulder County:

· 2023: July 685 → December 464 (32% fewer homes)
· 2024: July 925 → December 565 (39% fewer homes)
· 2025: July 1,127 → December 594 (47% fewer homes)

In the city, about a third to half the competition disappears by the holidays, every year.

Think about what a buyer sees when they open Zillow.

In the city of Boulder last December, they scrolled through about 220 single family homes. By summer, about 370. The year before, it went from about 180 to over 400.

In winter, your home is one of 220.

In spring, it’s one of 400, plus every expired listing that came back with a price cut.

Which one do you want to be?

Fewer homes means more eyes on yours. More eyes means more offers. More offers means you set the terms, not the buyer.

“But Mike, you haven’t talked about all the buyers who show up in spring and summer.”

Nope, I haven’t. And yes, there are more of them. But look at who they are.

Winter buyers are buying. They have a job starting, a lease ending, a real reason to move now.

Summer buyers are a mix. Some just want to get out of the house on a Sunday. Some are seeing what’s out there.

And some are walking through open houses to figure out what to price their own home at next year.

Those people are your competition. So why wait in line with them? Beat them to it.

If you’re thinking about selling in 2027, get ahead of them.

· Get ready now. Fix what buyers will flag, clean it up, price it where it sells.
· List as soon as you can, while the market is thin and the buyers out there need to buy.
· Be under contract before April, when the angry expired people come back.

Then if you’re buying, you shop in the spring with your sale done and when your PCOA runs out, while everyone else is still trying to sell.

The challenge isn’t the market. It’s the timing.

Want to see what this looks like for your home?

Reply ‘Mike, please stop beating a dead horse about inventory’, and we’ll talk about your particular situation.

By the way, ask me about a case study we did with just this scenario last year.

Peace