September stats are in

Mortgage rates jumped to 7.28% this week, up from 7.03%. Yes, this is a huge move up.

That’s the biggest one week jump since October 2022 and the highest level since November 2023.

Mortgage applications have now fallen four weeks in a row. Nationally, agents are reporting that showings have dried up.

That’s the headline. Here’s what it means in Boulder County.

Every fall, Boulder County luxury inventory starts its slide into winter. This year the slide began before the rate spike hit.

September numbers, in the $990K and up sector, compared with last September:

Active listings: 554                              down 12.8%

Median closed price: $1,405,000        down 1.4%

Most of those September closings were contracts written in August, before rates surged.

Pending sales, down 2.6%, are the first sign of the slowdown. October will show more.

The national story is about buyers who need a mortgage, but the high end in Boulder County works differently.

Luxury buyers here often bring 20% to 30% down or pay cash, so a 25 basis point move doesn’t take them out of the market.

What higher rates do change is who’s competing with them. Financed buyers step back, and the cash buyers who remain get more leverage.

Higher rates also hit supply. Owners sitting on 3% mortgages now have even less reason to sell, and some will pull their listings until spring.

Inventory was already heading into its winter low, and rates will push it lower and sooner.

In each of the last three years, months of supply bottomed out near 3 in January. This year it could go lower.

What this means for you if you’re considering some kind of real estate move.

If you’re thinking about selling, get ready now.

When inventory drops, the few homes that are on the market get all the attention from serious buyers.

The homes that list in January and February face the least competition of the year.

The ones that win are prepared: priced to the data, repairs done, photos and marketing ready on day one.

That preparation takes 60 to 90 days. If spring is your plan, the work starts this month.

If you’re buying, sellers are negotiating.

With 5 months of supply and prices flat for three years, you have leverage you won’t have in April.

Sellers carrying a luxury home through the holidays, now with fewer financed buyers touring, are making concessions on price, terms, and timing.

If you’re paying cash or putting a lot down, this is your market.

The national market is freezing. Boulder luxury is getting tighter and more selective, and it favors people who act before everyone else.

If you want to know what this means for your home or your search, reply here or call me.

My competitors say winter isn’t a market to make moves; but I disagree.

Peace.