Boulder OG: here’s the math on “waiting a couple years”

The other day, I wrote about the Boulder OG homeowner: you bought in the mid 2000s, and now you’re sitting on a hi six, low seven figure equity win with a tiny or paid off mortgage.

You already won. Actually, you killed it, congratulations.

This email is about why it’s time to ring the register, not try to squeeze the last 2-3%.

Let’s use a simple, realistic example. Someone who bought in the mid 2000s for “six something” and is now selling in the “one point something” range.

That might be a life changing win already, before we even debate the last 3%.

But, debate we will.

Let’s assume your place is worth about 1.7M today.

Option 1: Sell in the next 12 months

After normal selling costs, some prep, and a little negotiation, you might walk with ~$1.25-1.35M in your pocket.

You’re done. Or maybe not done, but on your way……Everyone’s number is different, and you can supplement with SSI, but you’re in good shape for a start.

You’ve taken chips off the table and moved the risk onto the next owner.

Option 2: “Wait just two more years”

Let’s be generous and say your price grows 3% per year.

That’s about 100-125k more on paper.

But you don’t actually keep that full 100k.

Subtract two more years of higher taxes and higher insurance.

Subtract ongoing maintenance on an aging Boulder house (roof, exterior, mechanicals).

And factor in the real possibility you end up giving 50 – 100k back in price, concessions, and inspection fixes because the buyer pool for 1.8M has shrunk, and they know they have leverage.

You’re effectively risking a (close to guaranteed) 1.25 – 1.5M net today to chase maybe 25-50k extra later, in a thinner, more annoying market with fewer qualified buyers.

That’s not savvy. That’s (humbly) greed and procrastination dressed up in careful consideration’s clothing.

On top of that, there’s the “next house” problem. If you’re trading into a smaller lock and leave in a hot area, or a simpler place with lower taxes, those target properties are also moving.

And god forbid you’re selling in a flat or slowing sector; big suburban, dated finishes, high fee HOA and trying to buy into a hotter, lower-fee area.

Your place grinds sideways while the one you actually want keeps marching up. Waiting doesn’t help you there; it hurts you twice.

The last cycle trained you to believe that “waiting a couple years” was always safe.

That was then. Today, the risk / reward on waiting is worse: more overhead, more policy and insurance risk, and a buyer pool that’s shrinking at your price point.

This is how smart, responsible owners get quietly screwed; not in a crash, but in three to five years of drifting while the exit gets narrower.

If any of this is hitting a nerve and you want to see how the numbers look on your specific house and your next move, reply with “MATH” and I’ll run it for you, no bullshit, no pitch for selling or staying, just a straight breakdown of what you walk away with now, what it likely looks like if you wait, and what your trade down or de risk options actually are.