What one week on the market actually costs a seller

A lot of market reports hand you a median price and call it a day. That number does not really provide anything pertinent and it doesn’t get a buyer off the fence.

Jerad Larkin at Chicago Title of Colorado ran the numbers that actually matter this month: what waiting costs, in dollars, week by week, across all 3,414 residential closings in the Denver Metro seven county area in August.

Under contract in:
7 days:    median giveback     $2,950
8 to 14 days:                            $12,715
15 to 30 days:                          $20,000
31 to 60 days:                          $35,550
61 to 90 days:                          $45,500
90 days or more:                     $65,000

Through the first two months on market, every extra week costs a seller about 0.8% of original list price. On a $600,000 listing that is roughly $4,700 a week.

Let that sit for a full month at 31 to 60 days and you are at $35,550 gone.

That’s not a rounding error, that is a used car purchase, paid for and handed to the buyer, inside a single month of doing nothing but waiting.

Here’s the part sellers don’t expect.

71.9% of homes that went under contract in the first seven days closed at or above original list price.

Across the whole month, only 30.8% did. That first showing weekend carries more weight than any price cut that comes later.

Once that window closes, you’re not just fighting the market, you’re fighting your own listing history.

And a price cut doesn’t get a seller out of paying a concession either.

Of the 1,569 August sellers who reduced their list price, 62.7% still paid a buyer credit on top of it, median $10,000.

Two discounts, not one. If your seller thinks a price drop is the fix, that’s the second level effect nobody is telling them about.

Now the buyer side, because this is the one that actually matters right now. Rates are sitting near 7%. Everyone knows they are not going back to 4%, so the new hope is 6%. Just wait for six, right?

No. You cannot wait for six. Six is already here, sitting inside the deal you’re avoiding because you told yourself you will not be talked into buying at these rates.

60.8% of August closings in the metro included a seller concession, median $10,000. For FHA buyers it was 93%.

On a $599,000 close with 10% down, that $10,000 credit runs about 1.85 points, which is roughly a 6.71% rate bought down to 6.25%.

Call it $177 a month for the life of the loan. Have your lender run the real numbers on the exact property, but the point stands.

The rate relief buyers keep waiting for is already priced into the listings they’re scrolling past because the number on the sign says 6.71 and they stop reading right there.

Do any real estate agents understand this well enough to say it out loud to a client? Does yours?

I try to verbalize the uncomfortable truth, if it gets on your nerves, I suppose I apologize.

But that doesn’t make it false.

Peace,